Almanac: At the Capitol

In Representative Marty Seifert's February 24th blog (Growing Government by Any Other Name Is Just the Same) he both predicted the DFL would enact significant tax hikes this legislative session as well as cautioned that such increases would not be well-received by voters. Seifert stated the people are "smart enough to know when more money is leaving their pockets … (and) will always outsmart the politicians."

But have Minnesotans traditionally been hostile to such state revenue-raising ventures? There is little doubt that, for a core of Minnesotans, taxes are the premier issue that motivates their political behavior and party alignment. As a result, taxes have been and will continue to be viewed as one of the biggest problems facing the state. For example, in January 2000, 10 percent of the state viewed taxes as the most important problem facing Minnesota, second only to education (11 percent) (Minnesota Poll). Five years later, in January 2005, 13 percent cited taxes, behind education (19 percent) and the economy (14 percent) (Minnesota Poll). Last July 15 percent viewed taxes as the biggest problem in the Gopher State, second again only to education (22 percent) (Minnesota Poll).

Likewise, in last fall's Governor's race, tax and budget issues were consistently at or near the top of public opinion polling when people were asked what is the most important issue determining their vote choice (MPR/Pioneer Press poll, Humphrey Institute poll). However, even in these polls barely one-quarter to one-third of Minnesotans viewed taxes as the key issue. Moreover — and the important question Representative Seifert must ask — are these anti-tax residents the ones who voted the DFL into office last November? Unlikely.

The fact is the majority of Minnesotans have historically been quite open to tax increases, especially in targeted areas for designated programs. For example, in February 2001 more than 60 percent of state residents supported a 60-cent cigarette tax hike to balance the state budget (MPR/Pioneer Press poll). Likewise, in September 2002, more than half of the state (52 percent) supported increases in state gasoline taxes to fund road construction and improvements to mass transit (MPR/Pioneer Press poll). In that same year, a majority of Minnesotans polled (51 percent) indicated the Legislature had either cut taxes too much over the past three years, or were wrong to cut taxes at all (MPR/Pioneer Press poll).

Voter support for tax increases is, admittedly, sometimes tethered to the notion that the state should use this funding to balance the budget — not to burden the taxpayer with additional state programs. For example, in January 2005, state opposition to tax increases (30 percent) was dwarfed by supporters for the state to combine budget cuts with tax increases to get the state's budget under control (57 percent).

In truth, tax increases in and of themselves may not be tantamount to political suicide for the party in power at the state capitol. At least, not if that party is the DFL. Republicans, however, may be punished for supporting tax increases — as their core support captures those who are most vehemently against and concerned about taxes. Representative Seifert does well to advocate fiscal restraint on the part of the DFL leadership this session, but his words of warning will likely not be met with trepidation by the majority party. The DFL is assuredly well aware by now that Minnesotans en masse may not find taxes as bitter a pill to swallow as the Representative implies.