Almanac: At the Capitol

Today Gov. Pawlenty telegraphed how medical marijuana could become law under his watch. When asked about the bill, the governor said he still stands with law enforcement in opposition. He also noted that if passed, Minnesota would be in violation of federal law. But then, on his own, without being led there, he said it was a "likely veto" but interestingly reminded us things get linked into bigger omnibus bills and he can only line item items with budget appropriations and so far the medical marijuana bill does not have an appropriation. Remember, many Republicans have changed their minds and gotten on board this session, chiefly former House Speaker and close Pawlenty friend Steve Sviggum. So now look for the medical marijuana bill to get rolled into the huge Health and Human Services Omnibus Bill that TPaw could find hard, if not impossible to veto in its entirety.

I love that political observers, including political reporters, can't help but look a year or two ahead. Another great conversation is happening on our Brain Trust of select opinion leaders and bloggers. It started with University of Minnesota political thinker Eric Ostermeier and his posting "Republicans Unlikely to Take Back House in '08" where he stated:

First, party control of the House has only changed hands in consecutive elections one time in Minnesota since 1960: in 1984 the Republicans took control of the House, only to suffer a significant loss of nearly 20 seats to the DFL (and control of the chamber) in 1986.

Second, for the DFL to lose the House in 2008 at least 18 seats would have to shift back to the Republicans. The DFL netted 19 seats in 2006 and there have never been gains that large in back-to-back elections by different parties during the past 24 election cycles. In fact, after each 'landslide' election in modern legislative electoral history there has been a period of relative stability in the party composition of the House:

• After the GOP won more than 20 seats in 1962, the DFL won only 2 back in 1964.
• After the DFL gained 27 seats in 1974, there was no change in 1976.
• After the GOP won 37 seats in 1978, the DFL won just 3 back in 1980.
• After the DFL won 18 seats in 1986, the GOP netted only 2 seats in 1988."

Now, the quotable and feisty House Minority Leader Marty Seifert has an interesting response:

While looking at the snapshot of this session so far, one would believe that the Democrats are obsessed with raising taxes on all sorts people, places and things. This will undoubtedly bode ill for them with the electorate, especially moderate and suburban voters who were hood-winked into believing that the Democrats had changed from their tax & spend history.

I'd suggest that the tide can turn on the DFL quickly in 2008. Some reasons:

1. The DFL won control of the House just last year by picking up 18 seats, but by only about 8800 votes statewide out of 2 million votes cast. If they can win the House in one election cycle, why couldn't they lose it in one cycle? They ran the table on close races and even the most partisan DFLer will admit that.


2. There are many "low-hanging fruit" freshmen who are co-authoring and voting Democrat on virtually everything. They are not the "independent-minded" people that they promised to be last year.


3. Norm Coleman is beating Al Franken by 10 to 20 points in every poll and he will run strong next year, thus helping the entire ticket. There's no doubt that Mark Kennedy's 20 point loss last year hurt the down-ticket.

The early polls in the Coleman race are a bit surprising to the press after Coleman was quickly labeled one of the vulnerable senators in the nation. The problem for Franken is that Minnesotans tend to keep the two senate seats politically balanced. It's also interesting to hear how many high-ranking Republicans have been publicly and privately bashing and blaming Mark Kennedy.

I like to try and get my news from a variety of sources, and often I find some of the best articles are being written by the college papers. I had one of those "I wish I'd written it myself" moments when I saw this piece in the Minnesota Daily. Only good things can come from an article that starts out:

For women interested in politics, Minnesota might be one of the best places to run for office.

According to the author, women now hold nearly 35% of the offices in the state legislature, with over 40% of the Minnesota senate seats. Not bad numbers considering only 25 years ago the number of women in state office had gone from one to seven. But in 2005 women accounted for over 50% of the state's population, yet we've still only filled one-third of the seats. We're catching up quickly, but how long until we finally hit equal representation? With groups like Hubert H. Humphrey Center on Women and Public Policy, the Minnesota Women's Political Caucus, and more partisan groups like the DFL Feminist Caucus and Minnesota Federation of Republican Women, that shouldn't be far away at all.

While looking at the snapshot of this session so far, one would believe that the Democrats are obsessed with raising taxes on all sorts people, places and things. This will undoubtedly bode ill for them with the electorate, especially moderate and suburban voters who were hood-winked into believing that the Democrats had changed from their tax & spend history.

I'd suggest that the tide can turn on the DFL quickly in 2008. Some reasons:

1. The DFL won control of the House just last year by picking up 18 seats, but by only about 8800 votes statewide out of 2 million votes cast. If they can win the House in one election cycle, why couldn't they lose it in one cycle? They ran the table on close races and even the most partisan DFLer will admit that.


2. There are many "low-hanging fruit" freshmen who are co-authoring and voting Democrat on virtually everything. They are not the "independent-minded" people that they promised to be last year.


3. Norm Coleman is beating Al Franken by 10 to 20 points in every poll and he will run strong next year, thus helping the entire ticket. There's no doubt that Mark Kennedy's 20 point loss last year hurt the down-ticket.


4. George Bush will not be the focus of the 2008 election, like he was last year. I remain firm in my belief that Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat nominee for President and nothing motivates Republicans more than her.


5. We will have an outstanding crop of candidates running in 2008. I've met with some people fired up to run already. The DFL is actually helping me recruit with their unending bills of regulation, bigger government and tax increases. I'd like to thank Rep. Kahn for motivating several candidates who have already called me at home wanting to run.

Giving statistics about House races from 1962 might show interesting historical facts, but the reality is that the 21st century in Minnesota shows a lot of independents and soft voters who gravitate back and forth. After the 2002 elections, my GOP caucus had 83 members. We now have 49 Republicans in the Minnesota House just 4 years later. The wild swings back and forth in Minnesota are unpredictable and anyone giving solid picks for 2008 cannot do so with a straight face.

Regardless of how highly or how poorly one grades the performance of the DFL at the halfway point in the State House this legislative session, it is unlikely the DFL is at risk to lose its majority party status in the 2008 election.

In a study of nearly 50 years of Minnesota State House election returns dating back to 1960, there are several indicators that suggest the DFL will maintain its advantage in the lower chamber for at least a second election cycle.

First, party control of the House has only changed hands in consecutive elections one time in Minnesota since 1960: in 1984 the Republicans took control of the House, only to suffer a significant loss of nearly 20 seats to the DFL (and control of the chamber) in 1986.

Second, for the DFL to lose the House in 2008 at least 18 seats would have to shift back to the Republicans. The DFL netted 19 seats in 2006 and there have never been gains that large in back-to-back elections by different parties during the past 24 election cycles. In fact, after each 'landslide' election in modern legislative electoral history there has been a period of
relative stability in the party composition of the House:

• After the GOP won more than 20 seats in 1962, the DFL won only 2 back in 1964.
• After the DFL gained 27 seats in 1974, there was no change in 1976.
• After the GOP won 37 seats in 1978, the DFL won just 3 back in 1980.
• After the DFL won 18 seats in 1986, the GOP netted only 2 seats in 1988.

These very small 'corrections' indicate that after electing a new party into power — especially in definitive fashion like in 2006 — the Minnesota electorate is prone to give that party some time to implement its agenda — usually across several election cycles.

This is not to suggest the DFL won’t lose seats in 2008; in fact, it is at a much greater risk to do just that. In 2006 the DFL picked up 13 seats by 5 points or less and an additional 6 seats by between 5 and 10 points. As a result, the DFL will have to defend 28 competitive districts: 19 pickups plus 9 held seats. The Republicans will only have to defend 18 competitive districts in 2008 — all seats held by the party in 2006.

As a result, barring extraordinary events that will tilt independents and leaners significantly towards one party or the other, it is very likely the DFL will still be in power in the House two years from now, although with perhaps a slightly smaller advantage.