Almanac: At the Capitol

After losing the lead in polls, Sen. Norm Coleman says he is "ending all negative campaign ads for the remainder of the Senate campaign."  People have had it with all the negative ads, whether they come from the campaigns or outside groups.  For weeks it appeared the negative ads were hurting Coleman and Franken, but now after the bailout vote a couple of polls put Franken slightly ahead of Coleman.

Franken's "Franni" ad where his wife talks about how Al stood by her through her struggles with alcoholism was a move in the positive direction.  After seeing Laurie Coleman open up and show some real depth in our interview aired last week, many have said Laurie could be better used on the campaign trail for Coleman too.  Laurie talked to me about how she grew up in a very politically active family (her mom was a leader in the pro-life movement and dad ran for office) so politics is not new to her.  Now their daughter Sarah is back in another ad.

In our interview you'll see some of tonight on Almanac as part of our upcoming Big Three show, Franni was hilarious, especially talking about their early life together.  She is the smart and funny big personality many were expecting to see from Al Franken.  In a long and emotional interview, you'll not only see Al fight the tears, but he loosens up and we get to see the sense of humor he's been keeping under wraps to appear serious in the campaign.  Many average folks I've talked to have been disappointed Franken hasn't been funnier.  Granted these aren't funny times, but people show up at a campaign event to see a former comedian and expect a bit a comedy.

Now it might not be the question that reporters are trying to get him to answer at this moment (about who bought his suits) but contrary to Sen. Coleman's statement that he doesn't respond to blogger accusations and rumors, he did with us.  In the interview we showed an excerpt of on Almanac, Coleman responded to all the whispers and blogger claims that he cheats on his wife.  Coleman said he's been true to his wife, although he conceded his marriage hasn't been perfect, he said his marriage is stronger now than it has ever been.  He said the accusations come from hate over hispro-life position on abortion and his wife's career acting in Los Angeles. 

For the record Coleman told me they no longer have a place in LA and they only briefly had a place for her to stay there while she was working and that was never where she lived.  Norm says Laurie drove car pool for years and if she was living somewhere else who would have been taking care of their children.  Laurie was very open and emotional talking about the loss of her two children in infancy from a rare syndrome. Laurie showed depth and dimension that the public hasn't seen before.  She does know what the bloggers write and she says she counsels Norm to just "send them love."  You can see more of how she deals with that when the whole Big Three show runs Oct. 22 at 8:00 pm on TPT-2.

I heard from two undecided voters who watched the Coleman and Barkley interviews the last two weeks to help make up their minds.  They both usually lean Republican, but were undecided in the Senate race.  The man says he'll now likely vote for Coleman and liked the senator's response to the issue of infidelity that has been an ongoing concern for this voter.   Al Franken's Big Three excerpt will be on Almanac this week.  The undecided female voter wasn't sure she believed Coleman's response and is planning to vote for Barkley.  She liked Barkley's honesty in our interview that he admitted he had a problem with drinking and depression and sought help.

And for the record, Norm Coleman's Big Three moments of his life are:

1. Family -- The joy of Laurie and Norm beginning their lives together and building a family, and the birth of two healthy children, Jake and Sarah,  and the sorrow of losing two children, Adam and Grace, in infancy

2. Dropping the puck at the 1st game of the NHL at the Xcel

3. The night after the Kent State killings (May 5, 1970), staying up all night with his college professor, Leon Martel, planning the student strike, while keeping the university open.

With polls all over the place in the Senate race, I’m getting asked a lot what to make of a 19 point difference between two polls.  If you’re not already, check out Pollster.com for the best overall sense of all the polls.  The trend lines are what is important and the trends aren’t good for Coleman or Franken.  Since July, Coleman has steadily slid downward, but what’s surprising is that Franken hadn't benefitted from Coleman’s decline up until the congressional bailout (according to MPR and Rasmussen latest polls).

We need to see where Barkley sits on this graph from now on because he’s a factor.  However, Barkley doesn’t show up in the polls until mid-August while Coleman’s decline was already underway.  Larry Jacobs' analysis is interesting that his poll shows Barkley could be topping out. 

Some wisdom comes from the former Strib Pollster who was a punching bag of Republicans who accused him of undercounting them.  Rob Daves writes on MinnPost that the tough question for pollsters this election cycle is who’s really a likely voter. David Brauer weighs in as well.

Party ID is another big issue that Coleman and Franken’s campaigns have used to downplay certain poll results.  I know an independent voter in Minnesota who recently got polled and wasn’t allowed to choose Independent as party ID.  The pollster said she could only choose R or D or leaning one way.  That shows you how much skin is in party ID.

And now the debates.  Barkley, Coleman and Franken each claimed they won Sunday's debate. 

The Franken campaign has released a new ad showing Al standing by his wife Franni through her struggles with alcoholism.  Here's a great picture they gave me for our upcoming show Senate Race MN: 3 Big Moments.  In an emotional interview Al talks about being a member of Al-Anon for friends and family of alcoholics.  Al said his personal experience was the inspiration for some of his movies like Stuart Saves His Family and When A Man Loves A Woman.  

You can still see the strong connection between Al and Franni today.  That was clear to me after spending a lot of time with them in their home working on this project.  What may surprise viewers is that they get to see strong connection that remains between Norm and Laurie Coleman.  So much has been said and rumored over the years, they'll address it.  This week on Almanac we'll air a clip of the very candid interviews with Norm and Laurie.  We're going in alphabetical order so Franken's profile excerpt will be next week.  Last week Dean Barkley revealed to me his treatment for depression and drinking.  The entire program Senate Race MN: 3 Big Moments airs Oct. 22 on TPT-2.    

Sen. Dean Barkley's campaign is directing people to our profile in which he revealed he battled depression and drinking and went into counseling after returning from his stint in Washington.  I spoke with two undecided voters to see what impact his revelation had on them.  One said they were more likely to vote for him because he admitted he has a problem and got help.  The other said they were concerned that Barkley is still drinking and says he can do it in moderation. 

Barkley told me after the interview that if he gets any higher in the polls he thought his opponents may use the information against him so he wanted to get it out first.  On Oct. 22 at 8:00 pm on TPT-2 we will have more from Barkley's children on how his drinking and depression and dealing with them have affected their family.

It's ironic that of course this confession was not something Barkley planned when he gave us his "Big Three" life-shaping moments ahead of time.  For the record, Barkley's Big Three in his words are:  

 1. The assassination of John F. Kennedy affected me deeply. It helped form
 my Independent nature and to question the political establishment as it
exists.

 2. The War in Vietnam made me a political activist. It made me care about
 how our Government worked and spurred me into political action to challenge
 the decisions being made by our Government.

 3. My marriage to Susan and the birth of my 2 children Garrett and Brooke
made me much more responsible and caused me to care about the long term
issues facing our country and my children. It made me think about what
deficit spending would do to my kids’ future and what would happen to them
once Medicare and Social Security hit the rocks.

Tune in to Almanac tonight because we think we have some news to report.  I’ve been working on the biographies of the Senate candidates in a show called "Senate Race MN: Big Three Moments" it’s the big three moments of the three candidates’ lives, the personal turning points for Dean Barkley, Norm Coleman and Al Franken.   The whole program premieres Oct. 22 8:00 pm on TPT-2.  

We got amazing access to all the candidates’ homes, wives, and children for emotional and candid interviews.  One candidate revealed something that he told me he wanted to get out before his opponents got to it first.  We will reveal that tonight on Almanac.  Next week we’ll have more interesting news on another candidate.  We’re talking about things that everyone has whispered about in Minnesota politics for years, but rarely if ever talked about on the record.

So, for all of those who wondered why my blog and I dropped off the radar screen recently, this is why.  This project has been incredibly surprising, rewarding and draining.  I see all the candidates in a different light and understand them on a deeply personal level and I think viewers will too.  We've never seen them like this.  I really have to thank the Barkleys, Colemans and Frankens for being so willing to open up about some of the most difficult times of their lives.

John McCain told the thousands of supporters packed in an Anoka/Blaine airport hanger "with this kind of suppport and enthusiasm we will win Minnesota."  Palin picked up a baby on her way in and mixed policy and personality in her remarks.  She took on Iran saying they should not have nuclear weapons.  Palin also said she will have new responsibilities on government reform, energy and kids with special needs.

First Lady Mary Pawlenty said her husband would haved loved to be here but he's in northern Minnesota for groundbreaking of a billion dollar steel plant, an "economic shot Minnesota needs."

McCain and Palin puppets

Inside it's packed and people are excited.

 Senator McCain leaving for the bus.

Protesters against the war lined the entrance to the Anoka Airport. They had a good audience because turn out seems big, thousands easily. Cars are backed up and authorities wouldn't let media enter through assigned entrance so there's lots of hoofing.

My observations after hosting the first televised debate in the 3rd Congressional District:  The candidates all did well.  My goal was to keep the pace moving.  An hour with three congressional candidates could seem long. We broke it up with some tape from citizens, but my technique was to "pepper" the candidates that means jump in a lot and ask specific follow ups.  So far the viewers really appreciated that.  What I've also heard from viewers today is that they liked the "professional" and "civil" tone of the debate.  I have a feeling that's in reaction to the nasty Senate race and ad wars.  The other big response I'm hearing is surprise about how well the unknown Independence Party candidate David Dillon did. He had some good lines especially about putting his tongue on the third rail of politics.  These guys all seem pretty well-equipped.

Tonight on TPT-17 at 7:00pm I will host the first televised debate in the most important congressional race in Minnesota and one of the top races in the country.  AARP is co-sponsoring the debate with us, we'll address issues important to 50+ and plenty of other timely and important issues to all of us.  Squaring off will be Independence Party's David Dillon, Democrat Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen.  The candidates that hit 5% in an independent poll are included. Should be interesting!