Almanac: At the Capitol

After a long wait, Al Franken took to the stage and launched with a joke asking Pres. Bill Clinton if he was nervous because of the big crowd.  It was a funny and relaxed moment that many expected more of from the comedian candidate.  Franken projected confidence in his loose demeanor with Clinton sitting by his side.  On policy, he reminded people of jobs created in Clinton's era because "government can work with the right people running it."  Franken said it's "time for change."  

Clinton continued the humorous tone, playing off Franken's joke that some people needed to get new friends.  Instead, the former president said as a Southern Baptist he wants people to convert their friends.  He said it was Hillary who sent him to their old friend who he said has "turned into a regular policy wonk" who has delivered a serious campaign.

Here's the empty room inside the Minneapolis Convention Center.  Obama and Franken signs hang side by side.   The backdrop (which seems required campaign staging now) is an enormous American flag.  Music with the theme of change is being tested.   The room is huge and stark.  The crowd won't be coming in for a while yet.  

People poured into the Minneapolis Convention Center when the doors opened to see Pres. Bill Clinton and Senate candidate Al Franken--and perhaps most important to this crowd rally for Barack Obama. Supporters are really fired up wearing homemade t-shirts for the presidential candidate. Because Bill is reportedly running late (as usual) there are lots of warm up speakers to keep the crowd entertained while standing on their feet for what will be hours. Gubernatorial hopefuls like Clark, Kelliher, Rybak, Coleman all took to the mic. Sen. Amy Klobuchar's high approval ratings proved true in this crowd, getting the loudest applause of the night.  

Even though President George W. Bush was officially not at the top of the Republican ballot in 2006, many political observers view the mini-landslide against the GOP last autumn as due in large part to the public voting against the President, who carried a very low job approval rating (at approximately 35 percent on Election Day in Minnesota) and a generally unpopular Iraq war strategy. It is the hope of Minnesota House Republicans that a stronger top of the ticket in 2008 will help their party make inroads on the large advantage held by the DFL in the lower chamber. One key component to the Republican strategy will be to leverage the positive statewide media coverage that will likely come out of the GOP National Convention (to be held in St. Paul at the Xcel Energy Center September 1-4, 2008) into votes for their party two months later — pigging backing onto what they hope will be a Republican nominee viewed favorably statewide.

The Republican Party in particular has used the national convention platform wisely in recent years by converging on blue states: Minnesota will mark the fourth consecutive GOP convention held in a state that voted Democratic in the previous presidential election cycle. But has planting the Republican flag on 'enemy territory' worked for the GOP in the past?

The trend began in 1996, when the GOP convention was held in San Diego. In the presidential election that year, Republican nominee Bob Dole performed about as well in California as compared to incumbent President George H.W. Bush's performance in 1992 (each losing to Clinton by 13 points). In 2000, the national convention was held in Philadelphia, and the GOP gained 5 points statewide in Pennsylvania from 1996. In 2004, the Republican convention was held in New York City and President George W. Bush gained 7 points in New York State from his campaign there in 2000.

Recent historical results thus show some evidence of a boost in support for Republican presidential nominees in the state in which its convention is held. This is a new strategy for the RNC who, from 1960 to 1992, held 8 of its 9 presidential conventions in states that were carried by Republican presidential nominees during the previous election.

A strong performance by Republican presidential nominees in the Gopher State has also had a positive impact on some lower ticket races in recent years. For example, in the last four elections in which the Republican presidential nominee has come within 7 points or less of victory in Minnesota (1980, 1984, 1988, 2000), the GOP deficit in the state Senate dropped by an average of 4 seats (excluding 2004, in which the Senate was not up for election).

House Republicans are, therefore, not only hoping a strong presidential nominee emerges from the convention in St. Paul, but that this translates into a more competitive performance for its candidates across the state in November — giving a shot of adrenaline to a party that suffered significant losses (and control of the House) in 2006.