Almanac: At the Capitol

Although I have previously written about the GOP's slim chances to win the House next year, it is true that several DFL legislators are in a precarious political position: disappointing their party leadership by voting against them on key legislation, or jeopardizing their reelection bids by voting with them.
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As the "Battle at the Capitol" comes to a head in the coming weeks, it is unlikely Republican Governor Tim Palwenty will lose much sleep over his differences with the DFL legislature — at least not insofar as his political standing and political future within the state is concerned.
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The trend began in 1996, when the GOP convention was held in San Diego. In the presidential election that year, Republican nominee Bob Dole performed about as well in California as compared to incumbent President George H.W. Bush's performance in 1992 (each losing to Clinton by 13 points).
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In a recent Brain Trust commentary (Legislature, Governor at Impasse on Several Issues), Joe Bodell suggested Governor Tim Palwenty's likely veto on a domestic partnership bill for state employees in same-sex relationships might not be a rational strategy in light of his rumored "national aspirations."
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Wholesale Buyer's Remorse for MN DFL House Officeholders Doubtful

My Monday entry for the Brain Trust (Republicans Unlikely to Take Back House in '08) prompted a quick reply by the GOP leadership. House Minority Leader Marty Seifert offered a thoughtful rejoinder (Democrats Unlikely to Retain House in '08) to my historical analysis demonstrating the rarity of turnover in party control in consecutive elections for the Minnesota House.
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I love that political observers, including political reporters, can't help but look a year or two ahead. Another great conversation is happening on our Brain Trust of select opinion leaders and bloggers.
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Regardless of how highly or how poorly one grades the performance of the DFL at the halfway point in the State House this legislative session, it is unlikely the DFL is at risk to lose its majority party status in the 2008 election.
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In Representative Marty Seifert's February 24th blog (Growing Government by Any Other Name Is Just the Same) he both predicted the DFL would enact significant tax hikes this legislative session as well as cautioned that such increases would not be well-received by voters.
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Fellow Brain Trust contributor Rich Broderick recently wrote a commentary (Franken Wades In, 2/2/07) in which he stated, "(Al) Franken should prove a formidable candidate in a Senate race against Norm Coleman."
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