Almanac: At the Capitol

DFL candidate for governor Mark Dayton walked his own press releases around the Capitol Press Corps today saying "it's a low budget operation." Dayton confirmed he not planning to just tap his own financial resources and is asking for money for his campaign, even though he admitted he "hates asking for money."

Dayton said Gov. Pawlenty "owes taxpayers a refund" for his trip to Germany. Even though Pawlenty's spokesman said the trip was paid for by the federal government, Dayton said it's really about "Pawlenty running for president" and "if he needs to pad his foreign policy credential so he looks better qualified than Sarah Palin, he should pay for it himself."

Gov's office responded with this:

There was no expense to taxpayers for Governor Pawlenty to travel to the Munich Conference on Security. The federal government paid for the travel to and from Germany. They were taking a delegation of more than 30 people and there was no additional cost for the Governor to travel on their plane. The Governor’s flight to and from Washington, D.C. was covered by state frequent flier miles.

With more than 1,000 Minnesota National Guard soldiers leaving tomorrow as part of a mission to Iraq, Governor Pawlenty believes it’s important for him to be well-informed on matters of national and homeland security. We have a large number of Minnesotans deployed around the world and this conference was an opportunity for the Governor to hear from and talk directly with U.S. and world leaders about the challenges we face

When it comes to Minnesota having only one senator in Washington, the former Senator Dayton said Al Franken should be provisionally seated, but Norm Coleman has the right to his court challenge.

Mark Dayton made it official today registering with the Campaign Finance Board.  In a statement he said "now is not the appropriate time to begin debate about campaign issues."  The former U.S. senator says he will not make a formal public announcement until spring, but will begin traveling throughout the state.

Over the years we've gotten to know Dayton well.  When he ran for Senate we did a rather exhaustive personal biography interview where he talked openly about his mental stability.  Dayton is a kind, even selfless person which is rare in politics.  He told me that he's mentally "healthier" than most and more "emotionally stable" than most politicians.  He said the biggest strugle in his life has been dealing with all the unearned wealth that comes with being a Dayton.  Remember he decided not to run for Senate again for the betterment of his party and state.  But that baggage remains.  Time magazine called him "Mark Dayton:  The Blunderer" and called his behavior erratic.

Dayton does still have money and a name i.d., both are big in Minnesota politics.  Lots of Dems I talk to say the biggest threats in the race for governor aren't in the race yet:  House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak.  But you can't rule Dayton out.

The image is just about what you'd expect:  guy in a cowboy hat, lots of signs saying welcome, multitudes of media and lots of sunshine.  Denver is busy and exciting.  Delegates, media a politicians are everywhere.  David Gillette's essay on it all is hilarious, check it out!  We've seen plenty of Minnesotans too.  DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez is pictured below riding on the airport tram with delegate Ralph Remington.

Sen. Mark Dayton was also on our plane and eager to invite everyone to his luncheon.  I chatted with Buck Humphrey in the airport.  Vice President Mondale was on my crew's flight out and he will be part of the Minnesota breakfast at the delegation hotel this morning.  Sen. Amy Klobuchar is on the list of podium speakers this afternoon.  So look for more coverage of our Minnesotans in Denver later today!

Wholesale Buyer's Remorse for MN DFL House Officeholders Doubtful

This is not to suggest the DFL won't lose seats in 2008; in fact, it is at a much greater risk to do just that. In 2006 the DFL picked up 13 seats by 5 points or less and an additional 6 seats by between 5 and 10 points. As a result, the DFL will have to defend 28 competitive districts: 19 pickups plus 9 held seats. The Republicans will only have to defend 18 competitive districts in 2008 — all seats held by the party in 2006.

Giving statistics about House races from 1962 might show interesting historical facts, but the reality is that the 21st century in Minnesota shows a lot of independents and soft voters who gravitate back and forth.

While no one can predict the future with certainty, we can certainly study and learn from the past to establish baseline patterns in voting behavior. To further bolster my point that voters tend to stick with a new majority party for more than one legislative session, and that voting patterns over the past 50 years for the Minnesota House are not an anomaly, consider the following trends of voting behavior in the Upper Midwestern region.

• In the Wisconsin Assembly and Iowa House, turnover in party control in consecutive elections has happened just one time in each state since 1960: from Democrat (1964) back to Republican (1966) control in both cases.
  
  
• In the Iowa Senate, Minnesota Senate, and Wisconsin Senate such turnover in back-to-back elections has not happened once since at least 1960.

In other words, modern Upper Midwestern electoral history tells us the kind of "buyer's remorse" that would be required in the Minnesota electorate to prompt an immediate flip-flop back to the GOP in 2008 is a rarity: about once per 50 years for the House and even more rare for the Senate. The challenge for the GOP in 2008 is that, to take back control and win back a net 18 seats, they need to hope Minnesotans experience wholesale buyer's remorse for all the new DFL House officeholders they voted into office in purple, bluish-purple, and reddish-purple districts.